The previous post in our Putin in Syria column can be found here.
While the English and Turkish IHH Twitter accounts blamed the Russian Air Force for the attack, a spokesman for the NGO told Reuters that there was no information as to who had conducted the air strike:
“Our teams helped to extinguish the fire… The trucks do not belong to us and there is no information on who bombed them,” Mustafa Ozbek, an Istanbul-based official from the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), told Reuters.
Reuters reports that the head of the border crossing point just northeast of Azaz said that a truck trailer garage had also been struck, killing three people.
This was echoed by reports from Syrian journalist Hadi Alabdallah:
The safe zone plan referred to by Alabdallah was reported on today by London-based Qatari-owned news outlet al-Araby al-Jadeed:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday at a reception at the Presidential Palace in Ankara that a “humanitarian safe zone” will soon be realised in northern Syria with allies.
“Turkey in cooperation with its allies will soon set up a humanitarian safe zone between Jarablous and the Mediterranean coast to prevent any more humanitarian disasters from happening again and to provide a place for refugees who want to live in their country,” Erdogan said.
A defected Syrian army general has told an al-Araby al-Jadeed correspondent that the safe zone will be put into place “within the next few days”.
“The safe zone will extend from Jarabulus on the Euphrates river until the city of Azaz north of Aleppo,” said Major-General Mohammad al-Hajj.
“Turkey thinks [the zone] will stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, sever Kurdish communications between Kobani and Afrin and protect its southern border in cooperation with several pro-Turkish opposition factions,” Hajj said.
The major-general said it was unlikely the tensions between Turkey and Russia would escalate to direct confrontation because “the stakes are too high”.
“Turkey will go ahead with its plans to set up the safe zone after it reaches certain understandings with Russia,” Hajj said.
As it seems highly unlikely that any other air force would conduct air strikes on rebel-held territory in this area of Syria, far from ISIS-control, the attack on Azaz indicates that such “understandings with Russia” are unlikely right now.
Furthermore, IHH is widely reported to be associated with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Following yesterday’s shooting down of a Russian medium bomber by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Turkey will establish a “humanitarian safe zone” along the border inside Syria. Al-Araby reports:
“Turkey in cooperation with its allies will soon set up a humanitarian safe zone between Jarablous and the Mediterranean coast to prevent any more humanitarian disasters from happening again and to provide a place for refugees who want to live in their country,” Erdogan said.
A defected Syrian army general has told an al-Araby al-Jadeed correspondent that the safe zone will be put into place “within the next few days”.
“The safe zone will extend from Jarabulus on the Euphrates river until the city of Azaz north of Aleppo,” said Major-General Mohammad al-Hajj.
“Turkey thinks [the zone] will stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, sever Kurdish communications between Kobani and Afrin and protect its southern border in cooperation with several pro-Turkish opposition factions,” Hajj said.
The major-general said it was unlikely the tensions between Turkey and Russia would escalate to direct confrontation because “the stakes are too high”.
“Turkey will go ahead with its plans to set up the safe zone after it reaches certain understandings with Russia,” Hajj said.
Two weeks ago Erdogan made similar statements, that a humanitarian safe zone would soon be established by Turkey and its allies.
Such a zone is not without precedent.
Following several cross-border incidents, including the shooting down of a Turkish reconnaissance jet by Assad forces in June 2012, Turkey vowed to take a much harder stand against the Assad regime. It moved its artillery to the border, placed its jets and helicopters on high alert, and even conducted bombing raids against regime troops close to the border. Turkey told Assad that any troop or aircraft movement within 15 miles of the border would be targeted by Turkish forces. By mid-October, Syrian rebels, as if on cue, vastly expanded the amount of territory they controlled in northern Syria, effectively creating a state in Idlib province and a narrow buffer zone, supported by Turkey, within this area.
In September 2013, less than a month after the Syrian regime launched a chemical weapons attack against his own people in Damascus, killing over 1,000, just two weeks after President Obama told the American people that he would ask Congress to authorize air strikes against the Assad regime (thus surprising and breaking his promises to his allies that the US would respond immediately if Assad crossed the “red line” and used chemical weapons), Turkey shot down a Syrian helicopter after they said it crossed the border in the exact same area where the Russian Su-24 was shot down. An analysis at the time done by this author concluded that while the helicopter may have entered Turkish airspace, Turkish fighters shot it down when it was 4 kilometers deep inside Syria. Turkey, justified or not, was sending a message:
Turkey Shoots Down A Syrian Helicopter – In Syrian Airspace
On Monday, the Syrian opposition reported that someone had shot down a Syrian military helicopter in Lattakia, in the mountains west of Jisr al Shughour, or in other words where the rebel stronghold of Idlib borders the regime's strongholds nearer to the coast.
But now such a safe zone might mean either open cooperation or open confrontation with Russia which is conducting combat missions in northern Syria. Is Turkey willing and able to do such a thing, and would they have any support from their NATO allies in the effort?
Today there have been attacks on Turkey’s embassy in Russia…
The safe bet is that Erdogan means business and he will enforce a buffer zone in Syria. He’ll have to respond in order to not appear weak in the face of Russian escalation.
Furthermore, Erdogan has a domestic political reason for taking a harder line on Russia — one of his main opponents is calling for a de-escalation of tensions with Russia.
DIPLOMACY – CHP leader demands Turkey, Russia de-escalate tension
Turkey's main opposition leader has called on the leaders of both Turkey and Russia to defuse tensions after the downing of a Russian jetfighter by a Turkish F-16 on Nov. 24. "No country should violate Turkey's border and territorial integrity. Everyone should be careful about it. We have relations rooted in history with Russia.
Two days ago The Interpreter posted a translation of a report that said that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) al Quds force, which is leading Iran’s intervention in Syria, was injured in fighting in Syria.
As we pointed out, such rumors are not rare, though this one seemed slightly more credible as the pattern of fighting near Aleppo and elsewhere could open the possibility of Soleimani being injured in any one of the recent IRGC military defeats.
One of Al Arabiya’s sources on that story is the “Secrets of Iran” Website, which is close to the “National Council of Iran Resistance,” run by the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, or MEK – not a reliable source of information. The MEK, an organization that is still on terrorist watch lists in some countries, often produces fake news to discredit the Iranian regime (in sharp contrast with more reliable Iranian opposition outlets).
Today, AFP is also carrying the headline that he was lightly injured in Syria, relying on an unnamed security source and the dubious-but-often-cited Syrian Observatory For Human Rights. Skeptics might note that this story is as thinly sourced, or even more thinly sourced, than the Arabic news reporting on this days ago.
AlQuds.co.uk, or Al Quds Al Arabi, which has no relation to the al Quds force but is run by Palestinian refugees, has posted a translation of the same story.
The Iranian government and state media outlets have denied the rumor that Soleimani is injured.
In other words, while it’s still possible that Qassem Soleimani was hurt in combat in Syria, this news is still very much unconfirmed.
— James Miller
The state-owned TASS news agency reports that Konstantin Murakhtin, the navigator of the Sukhoi Su-24 jet that was shot down yesterday morning, has told journalists that the aircraft did not enter Turkish airspace. Nor, he claimed, did the crew receive any warnings from the Turkish Air Force.
Speaking to Rossiya 1 television, Murakhtin said (translated by The Interpreter):
“In fact there was no warning whatsoever. Neither radio or visual. There was no contact at all. Therefore we went on with our combat plan as normal. You have to understand the speed of the bomber and of an F-16 fighter. If they had wanted to warn us, they could have presented themselves to us on a parallel course. But there was nothing of the sort. And indeed, the missile flew into our tail suddenly… We didn’t even make visual contact so as to carry out evasive maneuvers.”
When asked if their Su-24 had crossed the border, he replied:
“No, it’s impossible, not even for a second, furthermore we were flying at an altitude of around 6 thousand meters, the weather was clear, as we say in our slang “million by million.” I was monitoring all of our flight, until the moment of the missiles explosion. I perfectly on the map where the border was and where we were. There was not even a threat of entering Turkey.”
Murakhtin said that he and his pilot had flown over the area of the incident numerous times and that he knew it “like the back of his hand.”
Turkey and the US military claim that 10 radio warnings were given before the F-16s opened fire. According to a radar track published yesterday by Ankara, the Russian flight briefly crossed through Turkish airspace before being shot down.
— Pierre Vaux
The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced this morning that one of the two crew members of the Sukhoi Su-24 jet shot down by Turkish F-16s yesterday has been recovered alive. The other crewman, the pilot, was shot dead by Syrian rebel fighters while descending on a parachute.
The state-owned TASS news agency reports:
“The operation ended successfully. The pilot has been taken to our base. Safe and sound,” Shoigu said.
He said the rescue operation lasted for 12 hours.
“I’d like to thank all our men who were working all night long taking great risks,” Shoigu said.
RT reported that Aleksandr Orlov, the Russian ambassador to France, told the Europe 1 radio station this morning that the surviving pilot had been rescued by Syrian regime troops:
“One on board was wounded when he parachuted down and killed in a savage way on the ground by jihadists in the area. The other managed to escape. According to the latest information he has been picked up by the Syrian Army and should be going back to the Russian Air Force base,” Ambassador Aleksandr Orlov told Europe 1 radio.
The Russian search and rescue attempt ran into trouble yesterday afternoon when Free Syrian Army fighters destroyed a Mi-8 helicopter, killing one serviceman, with a US-supplied TOW missile.
— Pierre Vaux
The Kremlin has continued to ramp up its response to yesterday’s downing of a Sukhoi Su-24 strike fighter by the Turkish Air Force on the Syrian border.
At a question and answer session with journalists this morning, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia will deploy S-300 surface-to-air missiles at the Hmeemeem airbase in Latakia.
“As for measures to ensure the safety of our military flights in Syria, the proposals announced yesterday are not enough. I discussed this just this morning with the Defence Ministry heads. We will deploy an S-300 air defence system at our air force base in Syria. This is not the only measure we are taking. I hope that this measure, together with our other steps, will be sufficient to ensure the safety of our flights.
I want to say that we take a very serious view of what has happened, and we will use all possible means to ensure safety.”
Earlier this month, there were suggestions that Russia had in fact already deployed the S-400 system, a development from the S-300, at the airbase.
This was due to the presence, documented by both Russian Ministry of Defence photos and a BBC news report, of an RLS-96L6 acquisition radar.
The radar is indeed a component of the S-400 and certain advanced variants of the S-300.
However Dr Igor Sutyagin, a Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told The Interpreter that the 96L6 can also operate as part of a radar surveillance unit, providing the ability to locate and track small drones and other low-observability aircraft.
The presence of the 96L6, therefore, did not mean that S-400s or 300s had already been deployed.
With the announcement that the S-300 is indeed to be deployed to Syria, RFE/RL’s Charles Recknagel discussed the capabilities and impact of the systems deployment today:
The S-300 missile system is designed to shoot down aircraft and missiles at a range of 5-to-150 kilometers. That gives it the ability to destroy not only attackers in Syrian airspace but also any attackers inside Israel.
It can track and strike multiple targets simultaneously at altitudes ranging from 10 meters to 27,000 meters.
“The S-300 is Russia’s top-of-the-range air-defense system,” says Robert Hewson, the London-based editor of “IHS Jane’s Air-Launched Weapons.” “It is a surface-to-air missile system that’s capable of shooting down any modern combat aircraft or missiles, including cruise missiles. In a way, it is the Russian equivalent to the U.S. Patriot system. And what it does for Syria is it adds a whole new level of capability on top of the existing Syrian air defenses. Syria already has a lot of Russian [surface-to-air] missiles, but the S-300 would be the most advanced.”
Recknagel notes that the S-300 would greatly hinder not only any international attempts to create no-fly zones in Syria (though the feasibility of this already dropped drastically once Russia began air operations in the country) but also Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah-bound weaponry.
How much the deployment of the system would make any substantial difference is uncertain as Russia has already deployed the S-300-armed Moskva missile cruiser off the coast. The aim of today’s announcement is likely as much for propaganda and intimidation purposes as it military.
President Putin also went further today in criticising the Turkish government and, in particular, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist tilt in Turkish politics.
When asked by a journalist of his view on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s recommendation that Russian tourists avoid travelling to Turkey, Putin replied:
We don’t have much choice. After such a tragic event as the downing of our plane and death of our pilot, we have no choice but to take such measures. The Foreign Ministry is right to warn our citizens about the dangers.
You see, the problem goes beyond the tragedy that happened yesterday. It is a much deeper problem. We see, and not only we, but people all around the world see that Turkey’s current government has been following a domestic policy of quite conscious Islamicisation throughout the country for a number of years now.
Islam is one of the world’s great religions and it is one of Russia’s traditional religions. We support Islam and will continue to do so. But the problem here is one of support for more radical currents, which creates an unfavourable environment that is not so evident at first glance.
After what happened yesterday, we cannot rule out the possibility of other incidents. If such incidents happen, we will have to respond one way or another. Our citizens in Turkey could face substantial risks, of course, and the Foreign Ministry has a duty to say this.
After yesterday’s “stab in the back” line, which has been parroted incessantly by state media, today’s comments serve only to further worsen relations between the two states.
This morning the Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, described the downing as “recklessly criminal actions by the Turkish authorities.”
In fact the traditionally more pacific Medvedev’s comments were even more pointed and hostile than Putin’s:
“Second, Turkey has demonstrated by its actions that it is, in effect, defending the ISIS terrorists, which is not surprising, given the available information that certain Turkish officials have direct financial interest in deliveries of oil products from ISIS-owned facilities.
And third, long-standing friendly relations between Russia and Turkey, including economic and cultural relations, have been undermined. This damage will be difficult to repair. The direct consequences are likely to be the renunciation of a number of important joint projects and the loss by Turkish companies of their positions in the Russian market. “
Medvedev’s claims regarding the involvement of Turkish officials in ISIS oil sales is not unwarranted.
The Guardian‘s Martin Chulov reports that documents recovered by US special forces after a raid that killed Abu Sayyaf, an ISIS official responsible for oil dealings, revealed “connections between senior ISIS figures and some Turkish officials.”
Turkey has also played a worrying double game in Syria, much like Russia, by attacking Kurdish YPG fighters under the guise of combating ISIS. Turkey’s border has remained porous throughout the conflict, with reports that ISIS fighters and bomb-rigged trucks were knowingly allowed to pass through Turkish territory to attack the YPG-held town of Kobane last year.
However the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was rather more conciliatory today.
Following a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart, Ahmed Davutoglu, Lavrov said that the Turkish minister had explained the circumstances of the incident to him and was “striving to preserve friendly relations.”
TASS reported that Lavrov had assured Davutoglu that Russia has no intention of going to war over the incident and said that the Turkish minister had expressed his condolences.
But Lavrov also told reporters that:
“We have serious doubts that it was unintentional, it looks like a planned provocation.”
The foreign minister was also critical of the NATO and EU response, alleging a cover-up:
‘Strange assessments were made yesterday at a session of the NATO Council or, to be more exact, following the results of this session. These assessments contained no regret or condolences but were aimed at covering up what the Turkish Air Force had done. The same response came from the EU.”
— Pierre Vaux