A Sharp Decrease In Ceasefire Violations In Ukraine

August 4, 2017

Ukraine Day 1264: LIVE UPDATES BELOW.

Yesterday’s coverage of the Ukraine conflict can be found here.

An Invasion By Any Other Name: The Kremlin’s Dirty War in Ukraine


Second Day Without Casualties In The Donbass

For the second day in a row, the Ukrainian military reported no casualties in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

On Thursday morning, Ukrainian military spokesperson Andrei Lysenko reported only 30 ceasefire violations across the entire front over the previous 24 hours: 


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A Quiet Day In Ukraine? Fewer Ceasefire Violations, No Casualties Reported Thursday

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Aug 05, 2017 05:51 (GMT)

But at Friday’s briefing Lysenko reported even fewer. According to him, over the previous 24 hours there had been nine ceasefire violations in Luganks sector and three in Mariupol sector. The most alarming events took place in Donetsk.

The Ukraine Crisis Media Center reports

In Donetsk sector, Russia’s proxies violated ceasefire in the afternoon. They attacked Shakhta Butovka position and repeated the attack after 20:00. The attack continued about two hours, militants used IFV mounted weapons, large caliber machine guns, and hand-held grenade launchers. “In Avdiivka militants were active for three hours starting from 20:00, using mostly grenade launchers,” informed the spokesperson. In Svitlodarsk area militant groups staged provocations in Verkhniotoretske and Novoselivka Druha. The attacks continued about 30 minutes on average. In total, Russia-backed militants violated the ceasefire in Donetsk sector nine times.

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Ministry of Defense: Ukrainian troops incur no losses | UACRISIS.ORG

Ukrainian troops incurred no losses in action yesterday, reported Ukrainian Ministry of Defense spokesman on ATO Colonel Andriy Lysenko at a press-briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. In Luhansk sector, Russian proxies conducted nine ceasefire violations. Popasna area and the Bakhmut road were epicenters of hostilities.

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Aug 05, 2017 05:53 (GMT)

A summary of the week can be found here:

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Conflict chronology July 27 – August 2: daily provocations continue | UACRISIS.ORG

In the combat zone in eastern Ukraine between July 27 and August 2, three Ukrainian servicemen were killed in action, 21 were wounded in action. Russia-backed militants conducted 10 ceasefire violations in Luhansk sector. The incidents involved armor in Svitlodarsk area, mortars in Popasna and an attack with the use of IFV mounted weapons in Novozvanivka.

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Aug 05, 2017 05:58 (GMT)

However, the sudden decrease in Ukrainian casualties does not tell the entire tale. For example, according to Alexander Hug, Principal Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, while overall ceasefire violations were down by 20%, the use of mortars and artillery increase sharply, with 137 reported incidents this week compared to 88 last week. Still, compared to heavy fighting that has raged for months, spiking in February and again in mid-April, Hug reported that the intensity of the fighting is currently low. 

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Alexander Hug: SMM members come under fire at Donetsk Filtration Station between Avdiyivka and Yasynuvata | UACRISIS.ORG

Yesterday SMM members came under fire at the Donetsk Filtration Station (DFS) between Avdiyivka and Yasynuvata. "The contracted workers were installing an SMM camera on the roof of the DFS office building to ensure around-the-clock monitoring in the area," said Alexander Hug, Principal Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center.

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Aug 05, 2017 06:04 (GMT)

It’s too early to tell if this trend will continue. Sporadic lulls in fighting have not been uncommon over the last three years. They may signal diplomatic wrangling, troop rotation, strategic pauses for resupply or repairs, or uncertainty on the side of the Russian-backed separatists or Moscow. Sometimes pauses signal more dramatic developments in the works, but more often than not they fade right back into heavy fighting.

James Miller.